TAIPEI, ​Taiwan, April 10, 2025 – Taiwan is at the edge of a strategic cliff, trapped in a ​network of military coercion, economic dependence and psychological warfare orchestrated by Beijing. With ​more ​than half a million disinformation messages ​already identified on social networks this year, according to the Taiwan ​National ​Security Office, the threat is no longer in danger, ​it is rooted, real and evolving. However, as China perfects its grey zone tactics and digital sabotage campaigns, Taiwan’s people and political leaders awaken to a sober truth: true security will not be assured by allies or historical ​assumptions. It must be forged from the inside.

China’s behavior towards Taiwan has grown increasingly bold ​and multifaceted, from military ​posture to cyberwar and economic leverage. More recently, the use ​of the generative AI to fuel misinformation – particularly at key events such as the inauguration of ​President ​Lai Ching- ​te or the announcement of the US expansion of the TSMC – ​illustrates his commitment to the “cognitive war”, designed to break Taiwan’s internal cohesion. ​As ​the National Security Office has stated, these tactics are ​meticulous in destabilizing public opinion and making Taiwan a nation ​divided against itself.

Why this strategy? China’s general doctrine is ​to “win without fighting”, echoing Sun Tzu’s ancient philosophies. Through ​coastal guard ​provocations, air raids, economic pressure and propaganda generated by AI, Beijing creates an illusion of inevitability around its ​claims ​in Taiwan. According to the 2025 report revised by Reuters, these ​are not random ​attacks, but a well-planned strategy below the position, aimed at eroding Taiwan’s will and resistance, not necessarily triggering an open war.

Is China really preparing for the invasion?

No, not at all. While the military simulations ​of the ​PLA around Taiwan, such as the recent 2024-B sword involving 125 aircraft and 34 naval ships, are intimidating, they ​function more like tests for the psychological domination ​that preludes the assault. Historically, as seen during the third Taiwan Strait crisis of the 1990s and similar ​exercises since 2015, ​China has set aside the real conflict. Even with significant military ​improvements, including aircraft carriers and advanced missile systems, ​Beijing preferred restraint over confrontation.

In simpler terms, ​the threat is less on the tanks on the beaches and more on ​economic bottlenecks, ​digital ​sabotage ​and sowing of internal discord. According to Ketagalan Media, ​the Taiwanese ​Ministry of National ​Defence recorded more than 1,700 military ​incursions in 2023, not ​to provoke war, but to normalize intimidation ​and exhaust Taiwanese resources. China AI campaigns further strengthen this silent seat by injecting manipulated content ​on platforms ​such as Facebook and TikTok to shape public perception and instill defeatism.

Will the United States help ​Taiwan?

This issue remains Taiwan’s most uncomfortable bet. The United States’ policy of strategic ambiguity, ​enshrined in the Taiwan ​Relations Act, offers military assistance but not irrefutable intervention. According to the analysis of ORFs and historical parallels such as Vietnam ​and Ukraine, American military responses have often been ​motivated by national interests rather than moral imperatives. Taiwan, unlike NATO members or treaty allies such ​as Japan, does not have an explicit defence ​guarantee.

However, Taiwan’s importance for global supply chains, particularly due to the dominance of the TSMC in semiconductors, adds a layer of strategic indispensability. As PBS ​NewsHour points out, ​Taiwan is no ​longer just ​a democratic ally; It’s technological support. A hostile takeover would not only disrupt flea production, but would redefine global ​energy dynamics. ​Therefore, ​if US support is not assured, Taiwan is too valuable to ​be completely ​ignored. The key is to strengthen this responsibility through regional ​security partnerships and dialogues.

How did ​Taiwan respond to ​China’s threats?

Taiwan has shown remarkable moderation and ​resilience. Despite ​China’s continued incursions and provocations, including ​false reports of oil tanker seizures, Taiwan’s economy and society remained stable. According to the Taiwan Stock Exchange, ​even ​in the middle of the common ​sword peak 2024-B, ​the TAIEX index showed no signs of panic, increasing slightly in ​confidence. This contrasts greatly with the 1995-96 crisis, where fear took over markets and ​the public.

Most importantly, Taiwan has ​increased its internal defences. From the extension of compulsory military service to the strengthening ​of civil defence through the Defence Resilience ​Committee, the island is moving towards a comprehensive deterrence approach. This includes ​not only the acquisition of common weapons and military simulations, but ​also psychological preparation, civic education and infrastructure resilience. According to Ketagalan Media’s analysis, these holistic strategies are essential to counter multi-domain threats.

Can ​Taiwan be content with military power?

Not really. While military preparation is crucial, especially in the fight against ​amphibious invasions ​or the defense of urban centres, it is only a piece of ​the puzzle. Taiwan must also wage ​an internal war: narrative, ideology and identity. According to PBS, an increasing number of Taiwanese citizens are mainly identified as ​Taiwanese ​rather than Chinese. This evolving identity, while being a force for consolidating national unity, is also ​a vulnerability exploited by Beijing through pro-China political factions and influence online.

As ​Ketagalan Media’s analysis indicated, Taiwan’s political polarization ​is a time bomb. Internal discord over defence budgets, ideological disputes between DPP and ​KMT, and budget cuts ​of up to 28% threaten to weaken Taiwan from within. The ​improved Beijing IA campaigns are aimed precisely at exploiting these fractures, making unity a national security imperative.

What makes economic war a real threat?

China does not ​need missiles when trading. More than 40 per cent of Taiwan’s exports go to the continent, making economic dependency dangerous. According to the Taiwan Foreign ​Trade ​Office, this imbalance creates an advantage that Beijing is ​more than ready to exploit. A ​grey zone block targeting energy imports or financial systems could paralyze Taiwan without firing.

In addition, cultural infiltration and ​information add layers to China’s economic offensive. Societies supported by Chinese, entertainment figures ​and social media robots ​often subtly push unifying narratives, ​shaping the public’s sense of radar. The growing number of Taiwanese celebrities echoing Beijing’s rhetoric is not casual, it is part of a broader psychological campaign designed to harm public opinion towards compliance.

Where’s Taiwan?

The answer is ​not dramatic, but it is decisive: independence, not only political, but economic, ​digital and psychological. Taiwan must diversify ​its trade portfolio, deepen its ties with its regional allies beyond the United States and isolate itself from economic constraint. ​As the ORF experts point out, resilience ​must be redefined, not as militarization, but as a national ethic that encompasses civic unity, cyberpreparation ​and strategic clarity.

The main points of action are:

• Enhancing cybersecurity to counter AI-generated disinformation.
• Investing ​in counter-espionage and ​internal defense mechanisms.
• Implementing public education campaigns on ​media ​literacy and democratic values.
• Expanding semiconductor supply chains to allied countries to reduce dependency on ​China.
• Fostering bipartisan cooperation to ​build national consensus on defense and identity.

In the end, Taiwan must adopt ​a new mentality: survival does not ​mean waiting for help, but making it unbreakable. It ​is a discouraging path, full ​of ​risks and uncertainties. But as Ukraine’s resistance shows, a country’s ​will can call into ​question opportunities. Taiwan does not need to match the Chinese missile. It must remain unpredictable, untiring and, above all, united.